By JOHN McFARLAND
Associated Press Writer
Here's a warning for fantasy football players who are deeply
immersed in the pregame ritual of poring over every available
NFL stat: Don't believe them.
Well, believe most of them, but definitely forget the rankings
that show the Redskins, Giants and Jets have the stingiest pass
defenses in the league. All three teams should be easy to pass
on this week despite their glorious numbers.
The Redskins have allowed a league-low 162.7 yards a game, but
that's skewed by the fact they opened against six straight
incompetent teams that don't fully understand the forward pass.
All you need to know about Washington defenders is that they
didn't see fit to cover Brandon Marshall, who was slowed last
week only by a series of Chris Simms bounce-passes.
As for the second-ranked pass defense of the Giants, their
numbers are likewise built on the stomping of bad offenses
during their 5-0 start. In their four-game slide, the Giants'
banged-up secondary has allowed 262 yards a game and 11
touchdowns.
Finally, the Jets are simply coming apart at the seams, and Tom
Brady will be eager to pile up big numbers to put last week's
fiasco behind him.
As you reassess your options against these fast-fading defenses,
here's a look at some players to start and some to sit in Week
11:
QUARTERBACKS
TAKE A SHOT:
-Donovan McNabb's 450-yard day last week was his third huge game
this season, but he hasn't had two in a row yet. That should
change against a Bears pass defense that has allowed more
touchdowns than all but four teams.
-Matt Ryan has been miserable during the Falcons' offensive
skid, throwing just one TD in each of the past three games. A
dose of the Giants' secondary should help him bounce back.
-In other sophomore slump news, it seems like a long time since
we were celebrating Joe Flacco's big arm and Baltimore's more
balanced offense. He has one score in his past three games, but
he'll be playing comeback against Indy's questionable defensive
backs.
-Even with all his sore body parts and the Vikings leading the
NFL in sacks, Matt Hasselbeck could put up some good numbers.
The Vikings rank 23rd against the pass, and Hasselbeck's been
getting the ball out quicker.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT:
Please, in the name of Jason Campbell, don't start these
guys:
-David Garrard should be in handoff-only mode as the Jags punish
the Bills' defense that's dealing with the distraction of a
fired coach in addition to being terrible. (Plus, Maurice
Jones-Drew owes fantasy owners for taking a knee at the 1-yard
line, so he may get all the scores.)
-If Chicago's Jay Cutler is on your roster, well, sorry. The
Eagles rank third in the league in interceptions and second in
sacks, two stats that are sure to skyrocket after Sunday night.
-Don't gamble on Matthew Stafford or Brady Quinn despite the
horrible defenses they face. A Lions-Browns game is no place for
football stats.
RUNNING BACKS
ALL DAY LONG:
-Maybe the Giants used the bye week to figure out a way for
Brandon Jacobs to start plowing over people again. He averages
115 yards after the bye the past two years, and Atlanta's
defense ranks 26th against the run.
-Likewise, wonder if the Cowboys figured out their big giant
line only blocked for five Marion Barber carries last week.
Barber had 114 yards and a score about a year ago against
Washington - the last time he had a 20-carry game.
-The Vikings' vaunted run defense has trouble against slippery
and fast little guys, so look for good numbers from Seattle's
Justin Forsett. He's starting in place of the injured Julius
Jones, and he also catches lots of passes.
-LeSean McCoy, likely getting the workload in place of the
injured Brian Westbrook, should pop into the end zone a few
times after Cutler interceptions set the Eagles up in good
position.
RED FLAGS:
-It's nice of the Chargers to get that Denver collapse over with
early this year. Seems like it'll happen through the air, so
keep LaDainian Tomlinson on the bench. (Helpful hint: I'm almost
always wrong when it comes to predicting LT recently.)
-The Titans' defense has shown signs of life, while the owners
of Houston running backs have been in a Bud Adams sort of mood
lately. Look for more struggles and more time-share from Steve
Slaton and Ryan Moats.
-The Cardinals aren't proclaiming Chris Wells the main back yet,
but his two scores should keep Tim Hightower on the fantasy
bench.
WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL:
-It's this simple for Brandon Marshall owners: If Kyle Orton can
start, go with Marshall. Bench him if it's Chris Simms. (Hard to
imagine Broncos fans a year ago pining for Orton.)
-How in the world has Pittsburgh's Santonio Holmes gone eight
straight games without a score? Here's betting he snaps that
streak at Kansas City.
-Minnesota's Sidney Rice must stay in the starting lineup until
Brett Favre's arm starts to go. He's had yardage totals of 201,
176 and 136 over the last month.
-New Orleans' Robert Meachem has two long scores the past two
weeks, and Tampa Bay has allowed the league's most 40-yard pass
plays.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH:
-Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe is out with a drug suspension, but
don't think Chris Chambers will slide in and put up some stats.
The Steelers are a bit angry after last week's loss, and the
Chiefs still aren't blocking.
-Forget Santana Moss' reputation as a Cowboy killer. He has gone
for at least eight catches and 115 yards in three of his past
four against Dallas, but it's not worth gambling on the
Redskins' passing game.
-Jason Avant's the latest Eagles receiver to drive us crazy by
randomly putting up massive numbers. He's sure to follow his
156-yard day with a 22-yard output.
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FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST: RB Justin Forsett (123 yards, TD), RB
Jason Snelling (starter if Michael Turner out), WR Jason Avant
(154 yards), RB Michael Bush (114 yards, TD), WR Brandon Gibson
(93 yards).
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WHAT DO I KNOW?
Big Hits: I guaranteed 700 yards and 7 TDs combined for Peyton
Manning and Tom Brady, and they finished with 702 yards and 7
TDs. I expected good things from Carolina's Steve Smith (2 TDs),
Brandon Marshall (2 TDs) and Brett Favre (344 yards, TD). I also
expected failure from Carson Palmer (178 yards, 0 TDs).
Big Misses: I predicted success for Rashard Mendenhall (36 yards
rushing) and Pierre Thomas (37 yards). I thought flops were
coming from T.J. Houshmandzadeh (165 yards), Robert Meachem (TD)
and Jamaal Charles (103 yards, TD).
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